Happy Xmas
December 1, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
Next week will be 28 years to the day since John Lennon was assassinated, but time fails to diminish the strength of his message
Yunus was right - all my microfinance loans repaid!
November 28, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
I learned that “credit” stems from the latin word “credo” - ‘I believe’.
Now, I believe.
I was always skeptical of claims that the poor always pay back. It took the work of Muhammad Yunus with Grameen and microfinance to change my perspective but still I had little first hand evidence. Here’s an insightful screenshot of my own Kiva loans this year - every single one paid back - a picture paints a thousand words don’t you think?
Billionaires That Lost Big Bucks
November 27, 2008 by Graham Brown · Leave a Comment
Remember that sinking feeling when you last dared to take a glimpse at your IRA? Well, imagine taking a little gander at your finances only to spot of billion dollar losses. Yes, billion with a B. For a handful of the world’s wealthiest business elites, the downward spiraling world economy meant jaw-dropping dips. The biggest losers included: Indian billionaire Anil Ambani ($32.5B lost), Lakshmi Mittal ($30.5B lost), casino magnate Sheldon Adelson ($30B lost) and Warren Buffett ($13.6B lost.) Ouch, remember to save up those pennies for a rainy day (or year.)
Source: Truemors
Vaishnav jan to tene kahiye - on the Mumbai attacks
November 27, 2008 by gbrown · 1 Comment
Anger is the enemy of non-violence” - M Gandhi
vaishnav jan to tene kahiye jay peerh paraaye janneyray
par dukkhey upkar karey teeyey, man abhiman na anney ray
sakal lokma sahuney bandhey, ninda na karey kainee ray
baach kaachh, man nischal raakhey, dhan-dhan jananee tainee ray
samdrishi nay trishna tyagee, par-stree jaynay mat ray
vivihva thaki asatya na bolay, par-dhan nav jhaley haath ray
moh maaya vyaayey nahin jeynay, dridth vairagya jana manma ray
ram-nam-shoom taalee laagee, sakal teerth seyna tanma ray
vanloohee nay kapat rahit chhay, kaam, krodh nivarya ray
bhane narsinhyo tainoo darshan karta kul ekotair taarya re.
Mahatma gandhi Funeral Cremation
Literal translation (thanks to Sacred Songs)
One who is a Vaishnav, feels and understands the pain of others
Does good to others, especially to those who are in misery
Does not let pride enter his mind,
A Vaishnav, honours and praises the the entire world
Does not criticize or say bad things about anyone
Keeps his words, actions and thoughts pure
O Vaishnav, your mother is blessed
A Vaishnav sees everything and everyone equally,
rejects greed and avarice
Respects women especially some one else’s wife as his mother
His toungue may get tired, but will never speak lies
He does not even touch someone else’s property
A Vaishnav does not succumb to worldly attachments
Who has devoted himself to staunch detachment from worldly pleasures
Who has been addicted to the elixir of the name of God
For whom all the sacred places of pilgrimage are in the mind
Who has no greed and is not deceitful
Who has renounced lust and anger
The poet Narsi would like to see such a person
By whose virtue, his entire family gets salvation
Busy - a modern disease
October 21, 2008 by gbrown · 1 Comment
Busy - a modern disease
Busy…it’s a modern disease. Yet, common sense holds that busy people are by definition successful people.
How we boast about our “busy-ness”.
Got to dash… You don’t get much busier than the sprawling metropolis of Tokyo where I lived for several years in the post-bubble 90s.
How is it that the consumerist dream where money buys everything from limited edition Paul Smith brogues to 7 story Louis Vuitton megastores to the latest 3G mobile phones that outperform your average handycam to school girl knickers, that Japan ranks consistenly last in the WHO rankings for “happiest people on the planet”?
Ironic that the culture that created Zen Buddhism finds itself lost in noise. Zen - the art of doing one thing at a time. The art of taking time off…
Ferris Bueller’s Day Off
If you’ve watched Ferris Bueller’s Day Off you’ll know how the rest of the story plays out. We can choose to be Ferris or the cowering best buddy Cameron, shaped by the agendas of his father - the father who kept the Ferrari in the garage. Too busy to enjoy the Ferrari, Cameron’s father would keep the beast under lock and key, until the day that was - that he “arrived”… or retired.
Taking time off
So, I’m taking a day off, or maybe a week or a month - and choosing not to waste life on “work” or the pursuit of other people’s goals. Through leverage and massive outsourcing, I’m able to work a few hours a week and get a lot done.
Jeni, my PA, called the plumber to arrange a gas inspection on Friday, straight after she called the new tenant to welcome her to the property and let my cleaner know that Monday was a bank holiday and spend the morning calling furniture stores to get quotes to equip a 6 bedroom HMO. Jeni costs a lot less that you’d pay a graduate from these shores - and she is excellent at what she does. She’s one of a larger outsourced team, all of whom are very good, hand picked and trained. Friday was so productive that I snuck out to play the driving range for an hour, came back took a nap and woke up to watch some Olympic action. Not much happening there, but better than answering emails all day.
Less is More
October 15, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
How can less be more?
It seems uncommon sense, but this is what my riff is all about - being brave enough to go against the grain, beyond the societal illusion - the very same illusion that encourages us to waste our lives on hard
work.
In a world that demands more of everyone, how can doing less make you happier?
Let me share what I know already. It’s not easy.
But then working hard is easy. Slaving 60 hours a week in your office, in your business, for the firm is easy.
Easy? Because it simply means doing what is common sense. Sometimes we’re too busy to know what’s going on because we’re right in the middle of a life too noisy to allow a momentary respite.
I remember a simple cartoon of two scenes juxtaposed. First scene, Mercedes driver in traffic jam on yelling into mobile phone. Second scene, pedestrian strolling along sidewalk whistling a tune, unburdened by the commute. The two captions read, respectively “successful man” and “unsuccessful man”.
Being successful is the easy option.
It’s what society demands. “Early to bed, early to rise makes a man wealthy and wise” notes Benjamin Franklin… but consider the health, wealth and wisdom of your fellow commuters on your next jaunt on the 0705 misery express to London or wherever you work. Take a moment out of your schedule to look around. The exec flicking through emails on his blackberry, the office worker scanning the Metro’s headlines signifying more disease, more crime and more terror.
The irony is we are complicit in this manufactured reality because of our fear to take risks and live beyond our experience. Witness the old and the young - how their lack of or letting go of “common sense” and
received wisdom enables them to live without regret. The young child does not slave meaningless all day in order that she can earn enough money to run on a treadmill in the evening. To be happy, all she needs
is to be in the moment. Past, future and all the content that defines our identities have little meaning.
Similarly the humility of the old - their polite ways, their ability to sit still unburdened by the march of progress. Perhaps not so common in the developed world, but take time out to visit the Greek Islands and see how the elderly can spend a day “hanging out”, discussing affairs, watching the world go by. No wonder Crete has the longest life expectancy in Europe. They say it’s the Olive oil, but then that’s an easy answer because that one is a mere purchase away.
“Children, old people, vagabonds laugh easily: they have
nothing to lose and hope for little. There lies simplicity, happiness
and peace.” Matthieu Ricard
It’s easy to talk about happiness and self-reflection critics argue but what about paying my mortgage? Well here’s the second thing I have learned, more of which I’ll share with you later - that unless you’re ploughing furrows or carving widgets, there is very little correlation between what you earn and how much you work.
In fact, as you’ll discover, working hard is the easy option because that’s what everyone else is doing. Look around, a nation of hard workers. To busy to post that letter, go to the gym, catch up with friends. Too busy to spend time with the family, too busy to have a family. From the moment we wake we work hard with very little results.
Dad didn’t have much time to reflect on his life and if he did the concept would have been rather alien. I remember him getting upset when he realized he wouldn’t see in the next Spring’s bloom in the garden and
the day he had to tell his own mother on the phone he had 2 weeks to live. No man was ever born into the world to face this.
If we had the chance, what would we have wished more of? More time to check emails? More time at the office? More time watching TV? More time to buy that Mercedes? Regardless of culture, our wishes are simple and often universal. Spend time doing what we love, spend time with those we love.
The “deathbed” test highlights what is important in our lives. All the rest is mere detail. It’s easy to major in the detail because it’s safer. Detail doesn’t ask the difficult questions of you. Yet, given this is our only shot at living this life, why do we follow common sense?
Call it back to basics, call it a mini-retirement if you will, this blog is a journey to explore the possibilities of living outside of other people’s agendas, working less, enjoying life, being happier, achieving financial freedom and ultimately taking that day off.
Cameron: “The 1961 Ferrari, two-fifty GT California. Less than a hundred were made. My father spent three years restoring this car. It is his love, it is his passion . . .”
Ferris Bueller: “It is his fault he didn’t lock the garage
Graham Brown on how the US credit crunch impacts property investment (Free Ebook)
October 4, 2008 by gbrown · 2 Comments
Graham Brown provides insight into how the recent developments in the US (the credit crunch) will affect the BMV industry and change the face of investing irrevocably. He also provides a roadmap for future investment.
Download & share the Full BMV Ebook now (PDF)
Technorati Tags: bmv, property, credit crunch, investment, kiyosaki, nmd, bmv leads, bmv deals, mortgages
Born on this day…
October 2, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
Mohandas Gandhi 2 October 1968
Father of democratic India and a shining light for all that believe there is another way…
“My life is my message”
Born on this day - TS Eliot
September 26, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
“We shall not cease from exploration, and at the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time” TS Eliot (26 September 1888 – 4 January 1965)
“Footsteps echo in the memory
Through the pathways which we did not take
Toward the door we never opened
Into the garden”
MobileYouth Speaking: Prepaid Mobile Summit Prague IIR 22-25 Sep 08
September 24, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
Summary of my Understanding Mobile Youth Workshop @ The Prepaid Mobile Summit IIR 22-25 September 2008 in Prague.
Note contains video not available on Powerpoint. MobileYouthNet to view on the street videos in full.
ShabuShabu and Sandwiches
September 19, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
Stories of the Bubble: Shabushabu and sandwiches - property tales from the credit crunch Japan and Thailand 1996-1998
When I moved to Tokyo in 1996 I caught the end of the bubble.
They had just seen one of their retail banks go bust, a spree of financial mergers plus a severe downturn in asset prices. These are times when you expect governments to provide leadership. Japan’s ministry of finance were however just about to see 40 of their ministers exposed for accepting corporate bribes from corporations in the form of “no pan shabushabu”. Without going into too much of the details “shabushabu” is a popular meat dish and “no pan” is how the schoolgirl waitresses dressed ie “no pants”. It seemed the cavalry were out to play.
It was unheard of at the time for banks in the west to gamble so unabatedly in real estate prices and I was shocked that the system had let it go on unfettered. But 12 years on we are seeing a similar scenario play out in the UK and US.
The Tokyo situation was however a little more profound (I hope). It was the time of exuberance. $1m bought you a years membership to Kawasaki golf club or 1 square foot of commercial office space in Shinjuku.
It was the era of rich Japanese magnates such as Hori (husband of designer Hanae) and japanese buyers of western art (such as The Sunflowers). It was an era when mitsubishi would fly its senior managers on a private jet to korea or hawaii just for a round of golf. The Nikkei edged 38,000 back then (it currently stands at 11,000)
A duplex home in Number 2 City would have cost you $180,000 back in 1996 when I moved there. The same property would today, 12 years on, set you back half that.
Japan was/is different. The financial system was more fragile on the basis that much of what went on was sheer fraudulent as opposed to reckless. Furthermore when western investors witchhunt out exposure to toxic credit default swaps and other investments, Japan brushed it under the carpet.
Denial it seemed was endemic. I read of one salariman who had spent 2 years going through the motions of getting up early and going to work to convince his unwitting wife that he was still in employment. He was only found out when they picked his remains off the track when he decided one day it was too much.
Whereas the west has committed financial harakiri and begins the process of disembowlment, Japan’s recession has been a death by a thousand cuts a - decade of stagnation much as a result of government inaction and lack of accountability in its financial systems.
But even in dire times hope springs eternal. A friend who worked for a Japanese trading company shared with me that they had invested billions in propping up real estate in Thailand that had subsequently lost billions in a succession of.bubbles - first Japan then the “Thai flu” 5 years later. Their Thai partner was a well known and respected developer ruined by the withdrawal of funds.
Having laid of 5000 staff he was down to a handful of stalwarts who rallied round him like a family. Faced with the unenvious tasks of answering the question “how do I pay off my debts?” his band of half a dozen compatriots suggested making sandwiches and so the entrepreneurial spirit was reborn.
One minute property magnate the next sandwich boy on the streets of bangkok selling to office workers and commuters.
Bubble or not, you can’t keep a good man down.
What the credit crunch means for investment
September 18, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
<b>Tin hat time again.</b>
Don your tin hat, difficult times ahead but take comfort in a 2009 where every property will be 30% BMV and a market with little competition.
If you can make it through 6 months of this, 2009 is going to be full of bargains.
In this outlook I look at the impact of recent developments on property prices. I look at why hotspots such as Dubai, Cyprus and Cape Verde are in for big falls and why you should hold off buying any property for the next 6 months.
<b>The reality</b>
Witness the unravelling of one financial institution after the next as exposure to toxic debts spreads.
With the world’s property markets dependant on the liquidity of the wholesale market and its pariah - the credit default swaps - we’re about to witness over the next 6 months the greatest wealth transfer in history about to unfold. Here are some of the highlights.
<b>Highlights</b>
* The crash hits the hotspots. Property hotspots such as dubai and cyprus witness asset value deflation on an accelerating basis in q4 08 as 3 factors come into play
- 1) local lender financing dries up as the wholesale tap is switched off
- 2) fewer petrodollars in the tank, the imminent crash of the russian financial system and expat us/eu investors with ready cash to pump into the system
- 3) the collapse of developers due to factors 1+2 sends shockwaves through the market Expect topend prices to fall 40-50pct in 18 months.
I had 2 calls from brokers about Dubai Sports City this week because I had expressed an interest about a year ago. They must be trawling their lists. With Americans, Brits crunched out, Indians seeing their real estate take a dive, Russians about to see their whole system unravel and Arab petrodollars drying up Dubai is going to resemble Kuala Lumpur back in the 90s when I visited post the bubble bursting - one great big building site with no action and a half built monorail.
This is all good news, bargains galore. Pick up a villa in Spain for 60% of what you paid for it in 2007. We’re already starting to see these bargains on the market.
* Rental levels begin to calm down. Don’t rely on appreciating rent in your business model as inflation, winter fuel bills and rising unemployment bite.
* Lending becomes more expensive. With libor pushing upwards and the easing off witnessed in the last few weeks reversed in a few crazy hours over the weekend expect BTL lending to get significantly more expensive in next 3 months.
* Investors go home. They say “a rising tide raises all boats”. Many investor boats were floated by the upmarket. Now how do they deal with a market where they’re stuck in the creek without a paddle? I suspect this time next year a large majority of BMVers will be out of the market (maybe 2/3rds or more). That’s the best news yet… more spoils for those who stick the course.
<b>What does this mean to me?</b>
* if you have the choice, don’t buy. Wait until the market calms down, at least until Q1 08. There are plenty of investors rushing into the market expecting bargains galore. Typical of the narrow perspective we have as an industry is an investor believing 30pct bmv today is a real bargain. Well here’s the reality 30pct bmv today is about market value in 12 months so you’ve effectively bought into a lemon.
* Furthermore I would warn against overheating any portfolio by taking on new tenants in new properties. Not only are those tenants extra risk in that you have the possibility of them defaulting/losing their jobs but you could also lose your estate agent in the process.
* Property investment is not just about making hay when the sunshines its also about shoring up your assets when winter approaches. Right now the nights are starting to get longer and investors, like the banks, would be foolish to overexpose themselves at a time when the market has still a long way to unravel. Streamline the business, sweat the assets and look at reducing voids by working those client relationships.
Necessity is the mother of invention. Think of the credit crunch as a sauna for your business, sweating out the unnecessary impurities. Those that make it through to the next round are in a much better shape moving forward.
<b>When should I get back into the market?</b>
* Not Today. We haven’t yet felt the impact of Christmas credit cards, winter fuel bills or the knockon from the city layoffs. When a bank dumps 40000 staff it’s not just 40000 people affected. It’s their partners, cleaners, landlords and all those service companies that once had the bank as a client. Also, the mortgage market will remain relatively illiquid for the next 6 months.
* There’ll be plenty of dead cat bounces and short stab rallies before we reach the bottom. Eternal optimists will see every bounce as a sign we are out of the woods. True, more millionaires were made in the Great Depression than the decade that preceded it but these entrepreneurs bought when the market had fallen, not when it was in freefall. Exuberance has killed many an investor. Good news…less competition.
* I’m looking at a scenario where property prices in 2009 are at least 20-30 pct off what they are right now - so you decide when you want to get back in to the market. The foolish will always talk of “markets within markets” and that “this area” won’t see any drop. True, if “this area” is populated by tenants who aren’t employed or shop in the UK and an area serviced by a unique financial market with banks we have yet to hear about. As such, those areas don’t exist. The crunch is all seeing. Furthermore you can’t decouple the housing market. When you sell a property in Kensington, the buyers can sell theirs in Clapham and the vendor can move to Dorset. All markets feed off each other.
* (high risk investments) areas with largest falls:
N Ireland, North England, wales
Holiday areas
Areas with high “new immigrant” (eg Polish) population
Docklands
* (low risk investments) areas with smallest falls:
London
Student towns
In the Ghetto
August 16, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
It’s 31 years ago to the day that Elvis passed away. I can remember distinctly the memory sitting in a friends house watching TV when his older sister and mother wept incontrollably talking about someone called “Elvis”. Who Elvis was I didn’t know but I had vaguely heard the name. Quite what he meant to everyone was beyond my comprehension at the time - being only 5 years old.
Sukiyaki
August 12, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
Every time I hear this song I’m taken back to the 90s when I lived in Japan. For those who know Japan, today is the day Kyu Sakamoto was killed in that fateful JAL plane crash Aug 12, 1985. Ironically, despite his talent and Japan has failed to produce a single decent pop star since (cue the flames)…
New Map of UK Real Estate Property Investors
July 31, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
We’ve just updated it, signed up our 75th beta tester
Click here to see the whole member base
Beta test the new mobileYouth social network
July 29, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
mobileYouthNet.com -> We’re trialling it here, open to beta testers only (click to join)
Share ideas, opinion, presentations, data, contact details with professionals in the mobile youth, marketing, brand and advertising space.
The Greatest Wealth Transfer in History about to unfold…
July 28, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
As we look out over the next six months what we see will be extraordinary. The opportunities for prepared investors have never been brighter as the unfolding volatility will be incredible. “Volatility is Opportunity ” for the prepared investor and it will arrive in spades. After a short period of corrective activity I believe explosive moves in almost ALL SECTORS (interest rates, stocks, commodities, natural resources, currencies, and more) lay on the near horizon.
Where to find a list of Property Events?
July 26, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
Social Networking for Real Estate Property Investors?
July 24, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
I’ve just joined Love Property - the new social network for property investors which is currently open in BETA stage.
Love Property will become invite-only after the first 100 beta members sign up so get your application before it closes .
40 years of the global village
June 25, 2008 by gbrown · Leave a Comment
41 years ago today, the world witnessed the first live satellite linkup (BBC’s “Our World”) broadcast to an estimated 400 million viewers - staggering considering this was 1967.
The nub of the broadcast was to showcase innovation & culture from around the globe. While the Irish gladly demonstrated their clog dancing, the Japanese their world class subway system and the Australians their tramlink, the UK production fretted over what exactly constituted a true representation of British culture. So in a brave mood and nod to the nuance of the time, when the live broadcast announced “over to London…”
The Beatles perform “All You Need is Love” with Mick Jagger, Keith Richards, Eric Clapton, Graham Nash, Keith Moon and Gary Leeds providing backing vocals. How cool is that?
